12 May How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?
On April 30, 2020, Stuart A. Thompson wrote a story for the Opinion section of the New York Times titled “How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?” The piece is a wake-up call for anyone anticipating a quick fix to this pandemic. It is important to remember it is 40 years out and there is still no vaccine for HIV/AIDS. However, Thompson’s research suggests there are about 254 therapies now in the works and 95 vaccine options for Covid-19. (And good treatments, even a preventative, Truvada, for HIV/AIDS.) Thompson’s observations rhyme with those in Dr. Alan’s Safdi’s most recent podcast on the same subject: treatments and vaccines. Listen to Dr. Alan’s podcast here.
A vaccine would be the ultimate weapon against the coronavirus and the best route back to normal life. Officials like Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the top infectious disease expert on the Trump administration’s coronavirus task force, estimate a vaccine could arrive in at least 12 to 18 months.
The grim truth behind this rosy forecast is that a vaccine probably won’t arrive any time soon. Clinical trials almost never succeed. We’ve never released a coronavirus vaccine for humans before. Our record for developing an entirely new vaccine is at least four years — more time than the public or the economy can tolerate social-distancing orders.
But if there was any time to fast-track a vaccine, it is now. So Times Opinion asked vaccine experts how we could condense the timeline and get a vaccine in the next few months instead of years.
Here’s how we might achieve the impossible.
Assume We Already Understand the Coronavirus…
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.