San Juan Mountains Weather: Updated Snow Forecast

29 Jan San Juan Mountains Weather: Updated Snow Forecast

The familiar January dome of high pressure is breaking down with several Pacific storms carrying a lot of moisture is entering the Rockies on NW flow.  Beginning tomorrow the northern and central Colorado mountains will see a change in weather with the first short wave of the trough, but the San Juans probably won’t see much action until sometime later Thursday and even then depending on which model you want to go with (because they are definitely not in agreement) the SW to W to NW San Juans should receive 1-2″ of H20.

Thursday afternoon through late Friday looks to be the best chance for precip in the San Juans when the flow becomes more zonal (due West flow) or digs slightly southwest, then favoring SW aspects.  Also the cold front timing will influence the snow production.   Most of the models have the front setting up in the central mountains, but several show the front further north and south in the San Juans.  Take your pick.  You can expect enhanced snow fall wherever it does set up so stay tuned for the developing story.  This is a warm storm so we will probably have sleet/rain and some snow in the lower valleys. The favored higher locations above 11,000′ could see 10″ to 20″ of snow.

Early next week another storm system is organizing along the southern Colorado, N. Arizona & New Mexico borders.  Models show the San Juans benefitting from this southern storm.

See link below for a loop showing conditions as of 1-29-2014:

http://robertreport.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/sat_wv_west_loop-12.gif