18 Feb SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WEATHER: SNOW THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND?
A temporary ridge of high pressure formed over the forecast area last night and will soon break down with a strong Pacific storm moving through the area Wednesday into early Thursday morning followed by snowy unsettled conditions the remainder of the week. Models remain in agreement having the low pressure trough traveling down the west coast Tuesday night and into the Great Basin.
The storm center moves toward the 4-corners early Wednesday supported by brisk southwest winds & good orographic lift that will favor the southern San Juan mountains for potential significant snow fall with a rain/snow mix for the lower valleys. By Wednesday evening the storm center will push into NE New Mexico decreasing snow intensity in the south San Juans but may possibly increase snow fall on the north side of the range with wrap-around moisture. Models are not in agreement with snow amounts but, elevations above 11,000′ on south west aspects should see good accumulations Wednesday/Wednesday night.
An imbedded short wave disturbance moving down the backside of the trough will reinforce unsettled conditions Thursday & Friday with snow showers over higher terrain and a cold front will drive the temperatures down 5-10 degrees cooler than normal. Medium range models suggest a break in the action Friday night with formation of a flat ridge running ahead of another Pacific storm approaching from the northwest. This system will affect the San Juans Saturday and Sunday joined by another cold front dropping temperatures again. Hard to speculate about snow production from this second storm.
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