SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WEATHER FORECAST: 12/22/12

22 Dec SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WEATHER FORECAST: 12/22/12

Change is moving our way as the ridge of high pressure and Colorado blue skies break down with a plume of moisture associated with an upper low moving inland in pieces from the Pacific NW this weekend.  Clouds are on the increase today/tonight/Sunday morning with the edge of the system brushing the San Juans; however, moisture associated is not impressive and will favor the mountains north of us.

By Sunday night most models show an increase and lowering of cloud cover with the second and stronger trough moving into our forecast area.  Monday a relatively strong Pacific system will provide snow at most elevations but the strength of the system is in disagreement by several models.  One model has the system moving through rapidly with little snow accumulation and several other models are more leisurely in speed and have the digging trough producing more snow over a longer period/larger area and staying through  Christmas afternoon. Uncertainty is large amongst the models, but none of them show copious amounts of snow for our region.  Somewhat of a white Christmas is better than none.

Wednesday looks to be a transition day with a short-lived transitory ridge building then a strong Gulf of Alaska low should move onshore in the Pacific northwest midweek, then by Thursday/Friday move through our mountains with another chance of snow.