SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WEATHER FORECAST: 12/12/12

Editor’s note: Jerry Roberts sent this yesterday afternoon and we missed it. It’s still pertinent so we’re publishing a little late.

Southwest winds and clouds began moving into Colorado early this morning and will increase overnight with decreasing winds on Thursday.  With cloudiness, daytime temperatures should warm into the mid 30s and evening temps stay in the mid to high teens as a new storm begins to organize and enter our forecast area with a good moisture tap in southern Baja being pulled northward.

The various models are in agreement for a closed low dropping down over California Thursday night and tracking E to NE across our forecast area on southwest flow bringing generous snowfall Friday through Saturday morning, but the model uncertainties do not agree upon the storm direction.  One model has the storm tracking south then east through Arizona and New Mexico and the other model has the pinched off low moving into the 4-corners then traveling in a more NE direction which would be a better snow producer for our mountains.  Either choice the San Juans should see one foot and up to two feet of snow on SW aspects above 11,000′ by the end of the weekend.

Once the system moves east across the divide on Saturday morning instability and orographics will keep light snow in the mountains then the models have several shortwaves moving through this weekend bringing more unsettled weather and snow through Monday with amounts and locations varying greatly.  Even with all the uncertainty it will be an active weekend…..with good potential for more storms next week.

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