SAN JUAN MOUNTAIN WEATHER: SNOW FOR THIS WEEKEND?

19 Jan SAN JUAN MOUNTAIN WEATHER: SNOW FOR THIS WEEKEND?

The strong mountains winds recently forecasted didn’t materialize except at very high elevations above 15,000′ because of a warm/stable air mass the past few days.

The next disturbance moving into our mountains began moving into Washington/Oregon today.  It looks to weaken in it’s approach so we may only see the possibility (30-40 %) of light snow tonight/tomorrow depending on how much Utah steals first.

A promising Pacific trough traveling through the Great Basin should reach the San Juans on Saturday/Saturday night with widespread precipitation above 11,000′.  SW flow with the jet overhead should produce good orographic snows but may begin as rain/snow mix in the lower valleys because of warm air temps early but a cold front moving in later Sat. night will help with snow production.

By Sunday afternoon/evening a shortwave ridge will move through Utah into Colorado quickly drying out the remaining moisture and we’ll see rapid clearing from west to east.

Models are not in agreement for the next Pacific trough pushing into the Great Basin.  One has snow possibly beginning Monday/Monday evening and the slower model has the storm arriving on Tuesday/Tuesday evening.  A third model shows the persistent split flow we’ve seen all winter that could split around the forecast area without any precipitation… Take your choice, uncertainty seems to be the continuum. The NWS “confidence has dropped” on the potential of next week’s storm.